It's easy to find evidence of the Middle East and ISIS in the news. The difficulty comes in discerning the worthwhile and reliable information from the useless and redundant. This section of the website is dedicated to providing links to the best articles on these popular subjects and others. It's designed to save the reader time and effort (not to mention eye strain).
As I scan the internet for the most pertinent information available on the Islamic State, narrative, and other topics relating to the Middle East I will share the articles I find most insightful and relevant. If you only have time for one or two key articles on this topic, this is the place to look. The section will be updated regularly, so check back often.
Below you will find the most recent articles on these topics. To the left you can click on the various links to find lists (with links) to what I consider must read articles for understanding such topics as narrative, ISIS, events unfolding in the Middle East, American strategy, and extremism.
For a comprehensive list of articles and information on these topics download my Comprehensive Bibliography.
As I scan the internet for the most pertinent information available on the Islamic State, narrative, and other topics relating to the Middle East I will share the articles I find most insightful and relevant. If you only have time for one or two key articles on this topic, this is the place to look. The section will be updated regularly, so check back often.
Below you will find the most recent articles on these topics. To the left you can click on the various links to find lists (with links) to what I consider must read articles for understanding such topics as narrative, ISIS, events unfolding in the Middle East, American strategy, and extremism.
For a comprehensive list of articles and information on these topics download my Comprehensive Bibliography.
Most Recent Articles of InterestThe Security Risk Posed by ISIS Women Smuggling Their Way Out of Camp HolAnne Speckhard and Molly Ellenberg
22 June 2020 Government Technology & Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today Please read and carefully consider. I do not want to sound like a broken record, but there must be concern about the camps and prisons where members of and those associated with ISIS are being held. America and much of the world is concerned with a virus and various domestic problems facing their populations now. It is understandable why there wouldn’t be interest in a problem that may not manifest itself violently for months, years, or decades to come. I am pretty confident that these camps and prisons will be directly linked to leaders of the next wave of extremism in the Middle East and beyond. ISIS in Their Own Words: Recruitment History, Motivations for Joining, Travel, Experiences in ISIS, and Disillusionment over Time – Analysis of 220 In-depth Interviews of ISIS Returnees, Defectors and PrisonersAnne Speckhard
2020 Journal of Strategic Security, Volume 13 Anne Speckhard, Ph.D. has produced another excellent product. I highly recommend reviewing this as it is the best detailed review of who fought and why they fought. Is Internet Recruitment Enough to Seduce a Vulnerable Individual into Terrorism?Anne Speckhard and Molly Ellenberg
15 April 2020 Homeland Security Today This is a summary of a larger study published by these two authors. The best data on ISIS member reasons for involvement. I previously posted the full report by Anne Speckhard, Ph.D. and Molly Ellenberg; however, this abbreviated version is also excellent and the two serve as the best expressions of why people joined ISIS. Caliphate wives share their stories year after ISIS defeat: Reporter's NotebookJames Longman
19 February 2020 ABC News This is another fascinating piece on the ISIS women still languishing in camps that Syrian Kurds are forced to manage. As I have said before, this is crucial to get right. The children in these camps are being indoctrinated with a story-narrative connection that is poisonous and maybe long-term dangerous and deadly. I appreciate another report that adds to earlier great work on this same topic. Quassem Suleimani and How Nations Decide to KillAdam Entous and Evan Osnos
3 February 2020 The New Yorker The article provides excellent context for the killing of Qassim Soleimani. It is well worth the time to read or listen to at the link below. The authors provide a balanced discussion and historical perspective. They also ask some interesting and important questions for consideration. Terrorists and Technical InnovationDaveed Gartenstein-Ross, Collin P. Clarke, and Matt Shear
2 February 2020 Lawfare This is an excellent article that highlights the methods used by non-state actors to implement new technologies into their operational approach. ISIS founding member confirmed by spies as group's new leaderMartin Chulov and Mohammed Rasool
20 January 2020 The Guardian The best description and background on the new leader of ISIS. Strongly recommend reading. Iran’s Networks of Influence in the Middle EastInternational Institute for Strategic Studies
November 2019 Given the events of the past week, this is a must read. Understanding the narrative space of a partner or opponent is crucial to interpreting there actions. This chapter provides much of that understanding in a single location. One point of critical importance is that Iran sees the struggle with Iraq, in particular, and the region, more generally, as existential. They make decisions based on that perception. Iran has an existential ideology and its people faced an existential war against Iraq only a generation ago. It is almost impossible for most Americans to appreciate national existential danger. We haven't faced such a problem for 155 years Iraqi militant killed by US worked with Iran for decadesQassim Abdul-Zahra and Bassem Mroue
3 January 2020 Military Times Based on conversations with students i think this article is really important. This is the best article so far explaining who the Iraqi militia leader was who was killed along with Qasem Soleimani. Iran Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional DominanceU.S. Defense Intelligence Agency
2019 This is an excellent non-partisan appreciation of Iran’s military capabilities and strategic outlook. This has some of the best information with respect to weapon systems and service capacity. Killer Robots Aren’t Regulated. Yet.Jonah M. Kessel
13 December 2019 The New York Times Watch the video and read the article. This is an interesting and enjoyable presentation of what I consider to be the most important long-term ethical and moral problem for military leaders worldwide. Robots on the battlefield. In a drive for efficiency in warfare – a natural drive for all combatants – it makes sense to bring greater automation to the battlefield. The inevitable end to such efforts is something none of us really want – Skynet. The problem is that such results are seemingly so far away that almost everyone in charge of these design efforts continues down the course without sufficient concern. At War With the TruthCraig Whitlock
9 December 2019 The Washington Post You need to read this. This is a long article with more than 6,000 words. The subtitle is not shocking. Almost everyone I know with any knowledge of Afghanistan knew that the rosy assessments and predictions were completely fabricated. The notion that this is another Pentagon Papers is absolute garbage. There is nothing new here, however, this is a solid summary of the falsehoods and misperceptions about what was (and is) happening in Afghanistan. I suggest that this article is as much an indictment of the Congress and the media as it is of the military senior leadership. This does indict the military senior civilians and generals, but where were those responsible for oversight and where were the reporters? Why didn’t they go to Afghanistan, see for themselves, and ask hard questions? I fear that this article exposes the fundamental flaw of an all-volunteer military. The nation leaves it to “the professionals” to deal with the problem and no one else bothers. No one else is qualified to question “the professionals” and “the professionals” are not really qualified to build a nation they don’t understand. Before we can fix Afghanistan, we need to fix this problem. Arab Spring 2.0? Making Sense of the Protests Sweeping the RegionSarah Feuer and Carmit Valensi
1 December 2019 INSS Insight This is the best single article explanation on current protests. There is a lot going on the Middle East and this article places it in comprehensible context. The Tunisia Model: Lessons from a New Arab DemocracySarah E. Yerkes
November/December 2019 Foreign Affairs Too few articles address the aftermath of the Arab Spring in any detail or with a sense of perspective. This article does both. For those who want to know what people in the Middle East are doing to make their lives better. This article provides that answer. The story is not all positive, but the information is really important. The Iran Cables: Secret Documents Show How Iran Wields Power in IraqTim Arango, James Risen, Farnaz Fassihi, Ronen Bergman and Murtaza Hussain
18 November 2019 The New York Times Most people who served in Iraq clearly know that Iran was the winner of the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the insurgency that followed. This article makes clear that which we intuitively knew – Iran bought and manipulated Iraqi politicians and regularly outmaneuvered their American counterparts. It was clear, in 2014 and 2015 that the Iranians were in a separate joint operations center with the Iraqi security forces. They were regularly using the fight against ISIS as a means to expand their influence in Iraq. Read this article for the supporting summary and limited documentation of those already surmised truths. Baghdadi Confirmed ISIS 'Martyrdom' Narrative, Ensuring ISIS Will LiveAnne Speckhard
29 October 2019 Homeland Security Today Please read. I am not sure that I agree with the tone of this article, but Anne Speckhard is a legitimate expert with respect to former ISIS members so her work is always worth considering. I think that she is too cynical with respect to the role of religion in ISIS. I think two things can be true at once. Religion can be important and it can also be used to manipulate the actions of the fighters and worker bees. I think this is the case with ISIS. That said, read and think. In last days, al-Baghdadi sought safety in shrinking domainSarah El Deeb
Military Times 5 November 2019 One of the best short articles describing the personal behavior of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. This is unverified and probably can never be verified. If true, this paints and interesting picture of the troubles within ISIS and the mental state of the group’s leader. Widespread Protests Point to Iraq's Cycle of Social CrisisMaria Fantappie
International Crisis Group 10 October 2019 This is an excellent primer on the current Iraqi political violence and tenuous political climate in Iraq. It is four pages as a .pdf, but useful and important to read. Three Saudi Brigades Annihilated in Devastating Houthi Offensive in Saudi ArabiaFrederico Pieraccini
Strategic Culture Foundation 30 September 2019 This is a really interesting article. The tone is rather anti-Saudi which gives cause for doubting its veracity. I have tried to confirm the events and am confident enough to recommend it. I am still uncertain of all the facts being true, however, the possibility of a nation-state losing a major engagement to a non-state actor is worth reading about and digesting the implications. We're at War: A Covert Social Media Campaign Boosts Military LeadersDeclan Walsh and Nada Rashwan
The New York Times 6 September 2019 Really interesting. This is another example of the role of social media in modern conflict. It is unclear how much this campaign actually changes opinions, but it seems to be an example of how social media can form opinions. Coming Soon to the Battlefield: Robots That Can KillZachary Fryer-Biggs
The Atlantic 3 September 2019 This is an excellent article. I want to go on record as being opposed to the development of Skynet (in any form) and the furthering of AI for the purpose of discriminating to kill human beings through autonomous systems. The most concerning language used in this article and others is the language of inevitability or of it being out of our control. No one wants to see the road they are walking. Rather, they focus solely on the technology on which they are working. This lack of holistic responsibility is what will lead to the immorality of creating robots that kill human beings. If a conflict is not worth the loss of an American life then the conflict isn’t worth being fought. The potential for loss of life is what should make conflict rare and deeply considered. I hope to write more on this topic as it is an issue about which I have deep concern. Waiting for Return of the Caliphate Among ISIS Enforcers in Syria’s al Hol, Ain Issa and Roj CampsAnne Speckhard and Adrian Shajkovci
Government Technology & Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today 3 September 2019 Great article. This is wonderful support to earlier posted articles on the problems in the detention camps in Syria. Here are details of the actions of pro-ISIS women in the camps. These camps are seemingly breeding grounds for a next generation of extremism. ISIL is building a new caliphate from inside a Syrian refugee camp, and the West has no plan to combat itJosh Rogan
National Post 16 April 2019 Please read this. What a sad commentary on our failure to learn from our own mistakes. Some have scoffingly said that ISIS was created in Camp Bucca during the US occupation of Iraq. It was there that we allowed Abu Bakr al Baghdadi access and respect in the facility which allowed him to build his network of contacts. These contacts were among those who built and led ISIS upon al-Baghdadi’s release. This article explains that we are doing something very similar in Syria. It is not enough to beat an enemy on the battlefield anymore. We must help to build the desired new world. This isn’t new, but we seem to not want to learn it. Great authors and researchers like Rukmini Callimachi and Anne Speckhard among others have been warning about this for years. We need to take action. How Raqqa Became the Capital of ISIS: A Proxy Warfare Case StudyNate Rosenblatt and David Kilcullen
New America Arizona State University 26 July 2019 The best article on ISIS actions since Christophe Reuters article in 2015. The first several sections are a must read for understanding the processes by which ISIS gained control of a large city with only limited means. This is a primer on what weak actors will try to do with respect to developing violence potential. “Episode 500: The War in Yemen, with Katherine ZimmermanMidrats
Midrats on Spreaker 5 August 2019 This is worth your time. This is long (61:37), but it is extremely informative. The guest expert, Katherine Zimmerman, explains a lot of the present challenges and problems in Yemen and with the standard coverage of the fighting in Yemen. Behind the Veil: Women in Jihad After the CaliphateLydia Khalil
Lowy Institute 25 June 2019 Worth your time. This is a fascinating article on the changing role of women in the concept of modern jihad. About 9,000 words. ISIS expands in Afghanistan, threatening WestKathy Gannon
Military Times 10 June 2019 Informative and important to read. As ISIS tries to reestablish itself it has sought out ground in one of the most difficult countries to police or control – Afghanistan. What is uncertain is how much the Taliban/ISIS divide will be crossed by any possible peace deal with the US government. Islamic State Insurgent Tactics: Translation and Analysis (IV)Aymenn Jawad Al- Tamimi
aymennjawad.org 19 May 2019 Great article! This is a four-part series based off ISIS publications in their online newspaper al-Naba. This is advertised as the new guerilla warfare manual for ISIS. This is the best presentation of how ISIS is adjusting the teachings from the Management of Savagery. I Wrote to John Walker Lindh. He Wrote Back.Graeme Wood
Defense One 23 May 2019 Please read this short article. The best point of many good ones is the comment about a lack of opportunities to alter violent Islamist narratives in American prisons. Adversarial Tactics to Undercut US Interests in New Generation Warfare 2019James P. Farwell
Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Future of Global Competition & Conflict 3 May 2019 Excellent explanation of narrative with respect to Russia and China. The best line is "Story and narrative provide historical, political, military, and cultural context and dimension. Narrative explains who you are, what you are doing, your cause, how you pursue it, why target audiences should be interested, and what it means for them. Narratives bind together players, actions, and objectives in related stories so audiences can make sense of events." What ISIS Did to My VillageHassan Hassan
The Atlantic 27 April 2019 Well written article by a true ISIS expert. This is depressing, but illuminating as a reader can understand the present impacts of ISIS and the Syrian civil war. Al Qaeda video emphasizes unity with Taliban's Islamic emirate
Thomas Jocelyn
Reuters 10 May 2019 This is an interesting explanation of the Taliban media effort. A Caliphate Resident or Monster Made in Syria? Accused ‘Beatle’ Alexanda Kotey SpeaksAnne Speckard and Adrian Shajkovci
Homeland Security Today 29 April 2019 Fascinating interview. This provides excellent insight into the thinking, recruiting, and reasoning of an alleged ISIS member. This is long, but I believe well worth reading. Political Strategy in Unconventional Warfare: Opportunities Lost in Eastern Syria and Preparing for the FutureCarole A. O'Leary and Nicholas A. Heras
Joint Special Operations University JSOU Report 19-1. 2019 One of the best products for understanding details within the Syrian Civil War. The Dangerous Dregs of ISISRobin Wright
The New Yorker 16 April 2019 This is a great summary of so many of the problems with the post-ISIS Middle East. What is to be done with the fighters and their families? Many of them want to participate in a caliphate; maybe not ISIS, but something like it. The anti-ISIS coalition wants to fight this war on the cheap and that attitude results in conditions that are probable breeding grounds for the next round of conflict in the region. Libyan war escalates amid lack of U.S strategy for secret missions in AfricaSean Dean Naylor and Nick Turse
Yahoo News 10 April 2019 Excellent summary of the events in Libya. From Daraa 2011 to Daraa 2019: The Survival of Assad's Regime and the Challenges to Syria's StabilizationCarmit Valensi
The Institute for National Security Studies 3 April 2019 A great short summary of the Syrian civil war and why it went Assad’s way. Low aim or intel failure? ISIS’ last stand shows the difficulty in estimating enemy manpowerKyle Rempfer
Military Times 28 March 2019 A powerful example of how much we do not understand about the current opponent. How many of the bad guys are there? We haven’t missed this mark by the 10s or 100s or 1,000s. We missed it by the 10,000s. That should tell us a lot about our success of understanding the other. Hopefully, it generates thinking on why we have missed it so badly and what we need to do to prevent such ignorance in the future. Do counter-narratives actually reduce violent extremism?Eric Rosand and Emily Winterbotham
Brookings 20 March 2019 I am grateful for this thoughtful piece that questions the latest shiny object in the fight against extremism. This article gives an explanation of why the focus should be on understanding narratives and creating positive stories for one's own narrative rather than trying to counter the enemy's narrative. The ISIS Ambassador to Turkey Anne Speckhard and Adrian Shajkovci
Homeland Security Today 18 March 2019 Very interesting. The discussion provided by Abu Mansour is circuitous, but fascinating as he reveals the complexities in the relationship between ISIS and Turkey. Note other articles on the neo-Ottoman nature of the Erdogan government. Turkey is Changing the Middle East. The U.S. Doesn't Get It.Hussein Ibish
Bloomberg 14 March 2019 This is a brief, but interesting discussion on the development of Turkey as a neo-Ottoman state. The author does not use the term, but it captures the gist of the thesis of the article. Unmasking War's Changing CharacterZachary Tyson Brown
Modern War Institute 12 March 2019 Please read this. Most articles discussing the changing nature of war focus on cyberspace or on globalization. This article combines multiple profound societal changes that include globalization and cyberspace and Moore’s Law (the author doesn’t directly reference this, but it is present in the logic) to get to a synthesis of transformation that does approximate what has been and is being seen on present battlefields. The Taliban's leader lived in walking distance of this US forward operating base, new book allegesKyle Rempfer
Military Times 11 March 2019 Great example of the fact that the US does not know what it is doing, where it should be looking, or how it needs to win. How ISIS Is Rising in the Philippines as It Dwindles in the Middle EastHannah Beech and Jason Gutierrez
The New York Times 9 March 2019 ISIS is not dead just because it is losing and maybe even lost territory in Syria and Iraq. What is happening in the Philippines is critical to seeing the global resilience of the group. ISIS leader believed to have fled coup attempt by his own fightersMartin Chulov
The Guardian 7 February 2019 Fascinating insight into ISIS. Not sure how much of this is accurate, but it is useful to understand the internal fractures that have always been present in ISIS, but under this significant stress are becoming more and more critical. Observing the Defeat of ISIS in Syria: Gone in 30 Days or Likely to Return?Anne Speckhard and Adrian Shajkovci
Government Technology & Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today 5 February 2019 Fascinating prediction. Will ISIS be destroyed in 30 days? The article has great information and some good questions. Exclusive: Iraqi scientist says he helped ISIS make chemical weaponsJoby Warrick
The Washington Post 21 January 2019 An excellent discussion on the development of chemical weapons within ISIS controlled Mosul. Iraq: A Year after Victory, Stability Still a DreamHeather Murdock
Voice of America 25 December 2018 Who should rebuild after ISIS? Is the decision to delay or deny funding a purposeful effort to punish those who lived under ISIS control? The hopeful answer is no. I remember those who said that Nuri al-Maliki was not intentionally driving the Sunni toward extremism in 2011 and 2012. Spending billions in reconstruction now may save hundreds of billions in ammunition expended a few years down the road. Counting the Dead in MosulSamuel Oakford
5 April 2018 The Atlantic One of the best accounts of the casualties associated with the Battle of Mosul. The author is inaccurate, but he acknowledges he is only capturing a portion of the killed unlike official statements. Fighting the Fight We Are InAjit Maan
11 December 2018 Special Operations News from Around the World Fantastic article. Ajit Maan, Ph.D. captures the importance of narrative and its criticality to conflict success. The Digital Maginot LineRenee DiResta
28 November 2018 Ribbon Farm This is excellent. It is a great companion to Peter W. Singer's book LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media*. Though I disagree with the author's reading of the Maginot Line, I think the warnings are truly important. Please read. The Evolution of the Salafi Jihadist ThreatSeth G. Jones, Charles Vallee, Danika Newly, Nicholas Harrington, Clayton Sharb, Hannah Byrne
November 2018 Center for Strategic and International Studies Transnational Threats Project An excellent discussion on the development of salafi-jihadi groups from 1980 to 2018. The report is full of critical information. One bit of disturbing data is that the estimate of fighters in 2018 is 270% higher than 2001. A lot more is in here and it is worth reading to get to it. After 17 years, many Afghans blame US for unending warKathy Gannon
14 November 2018 Military Times This is a must read article for those who question the importance of narrative. This article expresses what happens when the actions and narrative are not in alignment. We are now the bad guys. Imagine a world where the Taliban is preferred over the US. That is what a bad narrative leads to. A View from the CT Foxhole: Patrick Skinner, Police Officer in Savannah, Georgia, and Former CIA Case Officer in Afghanistan and IraqPaul Cruickshank
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point CTCSentinal November 2018 Great read! He explains the true approach to influencing people. Real influence happens over hundreds and thousands of interactions and not through grand gestures. Well articulated and well-worth your time in reading and reflection. Qassem Soleimani and Iran’s Unique Regional StrategyAli Soufan
Combating Terrorism Center at West Point CTCSentinal November 2018 An excellent article. The author summarizes everything a reader needs to know to understand Qassem Soleimani and Iranian actions and intentions in the Middle East. This is long, but well worth your time. Returning ISIS Foreign Fighters: Radicalization Challenges for the Justice SystemAnne Speckhard, Ardian Shajkovci
Government Technology & Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today 4 November 2018 This is an excellent description of the problems with how the West sees the Islamic State and those who fight there. Dr. Speckhard's work is essential for expressing a more complete understanding of the challenges associated with returning Islamic State fighters whether they be defectors or prisoners. PERSPECTIVE: A Holistic Approach to Countering Foreign Fighter Terrorist Threats in the Long RunAhmet Yayla
Government Technology & Services Coalition’s Homeland Security Today 27 October 2018 Former ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters pose a security threat because most people are recruited by friends and family. Excellent explanation on the recruiting process and the means and methods for developing violent cells even after returning from a conflict area. The Caliph’s Role in the (un)Surprising Resilience of the Islamic StateHaroro J. Ingram, Craig A. Whiteside
Foreign Policy Research Institute 25 October 2018 Excellent analysis. Leaders regularly say that we cannot kill and capture our way out of this problem (violent extremism, in general and ISIS, in specific). I agree. We should not be surprised when the problem does not go away just because we have become more effective at killing and capturing. A Middle East Monarchy Hired American Ex-Soldiers To Kill Its Political Enemies. This Could Be The Future Of War.Aram Roston
BuzzFeed News 16 October 2018 One approach to fighting non-state actors is to do so with other non-state actors. This story is an example of that assertion. How to Fight Russian Infowar in EuropeRadu Magdin
Defense One 12 October 2018 Simple, but accurate to-do list for those interested in effectively engaging in narrative war. Beyond “Social Contagion”: Associative Diffusion and the Emergence of Cultural VariationAmir Goldberg, Sarah K. Stein
American Sociological Review September 2018 This is a dense read, but it is useful for those looking seriously at the source of cultural differentiation amongst people. Excellent support for the narrative landscape expression of culture. In one way, the authors express that people are inclined to accept culturally changing events and experiences that coincide with their previous inclinations. Using the narrative landscape model, people are inclined to go in a direction of least resistance or an object is inclined to roll downhill. Yemen's Three WarsGregory D. Johnsen
Lawfare 23 September 2018 This is an excellent explanation of the complexities present in Yemen. As a result, resolving the conflict may be as complex as the problems sustaining it. Al Qaeda WonStephen Marche
Foreign Policy 10 September 2018 Absolutely outstanding think piece! Please read. This is the article I wish I had written. Though the article calls it something different, he is expressing the core power of what I call maneuver in the narrative space or what others call narrative war. A Trumpian War on Terror That Just Keeps Getting BiggerChristina Goldbaum
The Atlantic 11 September This article provides great fodder for a discussion on the effectiveness of drone warfare. According to this article it seems to be effective, but that means that military power is further dominating the diplomatic effort. Sectarianism in the Middle East: Implications for the United StatesHeather M. Robinson, Ben Connable, David E. Thaler, Ali G. Scotten
Rand Corporation 2018 An excellent resource for understanding the meaning and background of Islamic sectarianism. Exclusive: Iran moves missiles to Iraq in warning to enemiesJohn Irish, Ahmed Rasheed
Reuters 31 August 2018 The cause and effect of anti-Iranian pressure is uncertain, but the expansion of the Iranian direct military capability is alarming. ISIS Never Went Away in IraqKrishnadev Calamur
The Atlantic 31 August 2018 Do we really understand the nature of our opponents? This article, and others, suggest that ISIS and other similar groups confuse the governments fighting them: their size, their method, and their location. Hopefully, this article will generate questions that can lead to a proper understanding. Losing a WarThomas Joscelyn
The Weekly Standard 27 August 2018 This is an excellent summary of the failed policy moves by successive administrations with respect to the now seventeen year old war in Afghanistan. The information in the article displays a significant amount of ignorance both of the nature of the opponent and of our own policy objectives. The US government does not seem to know what it wants in Afghanistan nor with whom they need to work to get that unknown thing. Bound to Fail: Transitional Jihadism and the Aggregation ProblemBarak Mendelsohn
War on the Rocks 28 August 2018 The problem with jihadist organizations is their inability to generate actionable authority and power over a geographic area sufficient to govern. An associated problem is that these same groups cannot generate sufficient support within the broader community to effectively govern once they control the land. This article explains these problems clearly and concisely as well as providing an excellent summary of the evolution of the associated jihadist ideology. ISIS is Ready for a ResurgenceHassan Hassan
The Atlantic 26 August 2018 Probably the best analysis of al-Baghdadi’s August 2018 recorded speech. Worth reading to get a creditable version of how ISIS may be seeing the transition currently occurring in the Middle East. The Untold Story of NotPetya, the Most Devastating Cyberattack in HistoryAndy Greenberg
Wired 22 August 2018 This is really a great article. There is so much that we do not even know or agree about when it comes to cyber crimes and cyber attacks. Is it warfare? When does it become war? Can one retaliate with physical violence when confronted by cyber violence? This is truly a staggering set of questions that we must address or unintended consequences could be devastating. Analysis: Gen. Nicholson says US strategy in Afghanistan ‘is working,’ despite the factsBill Roggio
Long War Journal 23 August 2018 Bill Roggio is one of the best-informed reporters and commentators on the Global War on Terrorism. This piece is another example of his command of the facts. He challenges statements made by the commander of Operation Resolute Support’s briefing of 22 August 2018. It is unclear whether or not the military is providing an open and honest assessment or displaying a positive can-do attitude for public consumption. The Push to Privatize the Afghan WarErik Prince
The Cipher Brief 21 August 2018 I am not a fan of privatizing war for ethical reasons, however, I believe that Mr. Prince’s arguments about the inflexible nature of government militaries and the poor training for those who conduct advise and assist missions are ones to ponder. After a New Massacre, Charges That ISIS is Operating with Assad and the RussiansAnne Speckhard, Adrian Shajkovci
The Daily Beast 9 August 2018 Excellent details on an event that has been underreported. The connection between the Assad regime and ISIS is often rumored, but this seems to be significantly stronger than rumor alone. Thank you, Anne. Dissent in IS Ranks; Al-Baghdadi Still in Charge?Jamie Dettmer
Voice of America 9 August 2018 These reports are fascinating. I am curious how much of this is real internal division and how much of this might be trolling. Either way this article is worth reading. Investigation: Yemen war binds US, allies with al-QaidaTrish Wilson, Maggie Michael, Lee Keath
Military Times 6 August 2018 War is chaos and confusion. This article is dangerously titled – a lot like click bait. It is also very much worth reading. It challenges thinking about war and how war should and often is prosecuted. Why should we care if our enemies leave an area alive? Is this a war of annihilation where all enemies must be killed or destroyed? If so, wont such a declaration harden the resolve of those fighting? The information on the wear in Yemen is excellent. It addresses some of the complexities and temporalities of alliances. This is the kind of piece that should leave a reader with far more questions than it answers. The Case of the Purloined Poultry: How ISIS Prosecuted Petty CrimeRukmini Callimachi
The New York Times 1 July 2018 Rukmini Callimachi has provided some of the best reporting on ISIS over the last year. This article is another excellent example of her work. She has shown the complexity of life in the ISIS caliphate. The people living under ISIS governance were not making a choice between a Western Utopia and Mad Max Fury Road. In many ways ISIS provided greater stability and predictability for residents than did the state leadership it replaced. This is important in expressing some of what needs to be done for opponents of ISIS to provide a better alternative. It isn't enough to kill ISIS and drive them out. The new governance needs to be at least as honest and just as was the caliphate. That may sound like a low bar, but unfortunately it has proven to be harder to clear than many think. Rukmini Callimachi's reporting is critical to gaining an understanding of life in the caliphate so that current state leaders know the actual height of the bar that they have to clear. Al-Qaeda 2.0 emerges from power strugglesEd Blanche
The Arab Weekly 1 July 2018 Great read on the stability and threat represented by the current version of al-Qaeda. “War of Annihilation” Devastating Toll on Civilians, Raqqa – SyriaAmnesty International
5 June 2018 One might be inclined to disagree with the blame assigned in this report. Despite the disagreements, the report presents an excellent opportunity for a discussion on the efficacy of firepower theory as demonstrated in the fight against ISIS. If this approach to conflict is unacceptable, then we need to find another way. My recommendation is greater emphasis on narrative-based strategies or maneuver in the narrative space. Why A ‘Human In The Loop’ Can’t Control AI: Richard Danzig
Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr.
Breaking Defense 1 June 2018 The challenge of functioning with an AI on a complex battlefield is expressed well in this article. AII is more than killer robots. The idea of a human in the loop only matters if the human knows what the AI knows and can make an informed decision. The enduring threat of Islamist politics in ‘reformasi’ (post-Soeharto) Indonesia and its global ramificationsKyai Haji Yahya Cholil Staquf
The Jakarta Post 22 May 2018 This is an excellent expression of elements of narrative strategies and what I call maneuver in the narrative space. The author and General Secretary of the Nahdlatul Ulama Supreme Council in Indonesia expresses the importance of transformation of the narrative space landscape such that there is a “successful implementation of a global strategy to develop a new Islamic orthodoxy that reflects the actual circumstances of the modern world in which Muslims must live and practice their faith.” Multi-Domain Confusion: All Domains Are Not Created EqualErik Heftye
The Strategy Bridge 26 may 2018 The author provides excellent insight for the problems of semantics in trying to communicate intent and effect. A Muslim Among Israeli SettlersWajahat Ali
The Atlantic June 2018 issue This is absolutely fantastic in tone and insight. Please read it with an open mind. Having lived in both Jordan and Israel, I was amazed as I spoke with people to understand the complexity of the debate. Americans often look for a good guy or a bad guy. Who is right or who is wrong. But, in this case both sides are right. Or, both sides are wrong. It all depends on the perspective. Former Guantanamo detainee warns against spilling secretsThomas Joscelyn
The Long War Journal 13 May 2018 Great analysis. Important distinction between the baya given to the Taliban and al-Zawahiri and the ones given to ISIS. Going Back to the Future: It is Time for Change in AfghanistanDonald C. Bolduc
Small Wars Journal 10 May 2018 This is an excellent review by a legitimate expert. The author also only addresses the actions rather than the understanding necessary. I would submit that understanding precedes success. If soldiers don't understand the locals, how can they actually influence them? Iraq's Maliki poses as Shi'ite champion in race for top job
Maher Chmaytelli
Reuters 2 May 2018 Nuri al-Maliki never really left a position of significant influence in the Iraqi political landscape. This article explains his efforts to regain his formal position of leadership. A Five-Point Strategy to Oppose Russian Narrative Warfare
Paul Cobaugh
Medium April 2018 This is a fantastic discussion on the importance of narrative. The article also includes practical approaches for being more successful with narrative. Great job! With Islamic State in Decline, What's al-Qaeda's Next Move?
Tore Refslund Hamming
War on the Rocks 27 April 2018 The commentary provides insight into al-Qaeda behavior over the past five years with respect to attacks in the West, or lack thereof. The links from the article to other sources are excellent. How American Neglect Imperils the Victory Over ISISTamar El-Ghobashy
The Washington Post 19 April 2018 The article has great quotes about what ISIS did well vis-à-vis the coalition as well as quotes that express the problems with how “liberation” from ISIS is perceived. The single best element is the graphic representation of building destruction in Raqqa from early 2017 to late 2017. The image expresses the destruction of the city. Defeating the ISIS Nostalgia Narrative
Colin P. Clarke
Haroro J. Ingram Foreign Policy Research Institute 18 April 2018 The authors express the danger of almost defeating ISIS. They warn that this group is not defeated and that their ideology and narrative are still resonant in the region. This is one of the best articles to refute the notion that fighting ISIS or any similar group is about killing bad guys and targeting leaders. What Iran Really WantsPaul R. Pillar
The National Interest 16 April 2018 This is one of the best articles for explaining the difference in perspectives between the US and Iran with respect to interests in the Middle East. A Saudi Prince's Quest to Remake the Middle East
Dexter Filkins
The New Yorker 9 April 2018 Dexter Filkins has written some excellent material on the Middle East. I recommend reading his piece in connection with the article from Jeffrey Goldberg as they present different pictures of the same subject. As is usual, the truth is probably best derived as a combination of both articles. It is certain that both writers provide excellent details. The ISIS FilesRukmini Callimachi
The New York Times 4 April 2018 Rukmini Callimachi is one of the best reporters in the main stream media on ISIS. This article is another example of her great reporting. The details in both documentation and interviews provides great insight into how ISIS governed and how they controlled the population. This is the most insightful ISIS article I have read since Graeme Wood’s March 2015 article, “What ISIS Really Wants.” More Than Militias: Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces Are Here to StayRenad Mansour
War on the Rocks 3 April 2018 The Popular Mobilization Forces represent a serious challenge to the monopoly of violence by the Iraqi state. There are many who will also say that such groups represent an attempt by Iran to create an Iraqi version of Hezbollah. This article provides both the background and the current situation sufficient to help a reader understand what has and is happening regarding what we typically call Shia militias. Saudi Crown Prince: Iran's Supreme Leader 'Makes Hitler Look Good'Jeffrey Goldberg
The Atlantic 2 April 2018 Jeffrey Goldberg has done some of the best interviews of major political leaders in the last several years. This is simply the latest such interview. One can understand much of the Saudi perspective of the Middle East a, the world, and Islam’s relationship with the rest of the world. The article is about 10 pages or so. It is worth reading to appreciate the full discussion. On the Road to Sinjar, Armed Men With Shifting Allegiances Decide Who Can Pass
Alissa J. Rubin
The New York Times Magazine 2 April 2018 This article is a simple road-trip story. That is not what makes it worth reading. The value in the story comes from the implications of the patchwork of groups and lack of consistent control across a relatively small portion of a much larger country. How does a central government regain control of these disparate groups that it needed to remove ISIS. Policy Roundtable: What Is the Future of the Jihadist Movement?Stephen Tankel
R. Kim Cragin Daveed Gartenstein-Ross Joshua Geltzer Texas National Security Review 20 March 2018 The four-part discussion of where jihadism goes in the future is worth reading, if for no other reason than the endnotes alone. The thoughts are also worth considering as some legitimate experts address where the ISIS/al-Qaeda nexus of non-state powers rests currently and what the future trajectory of these organizations seems to be. The single most important point for me was the emphasis on just how messed up the global geopolitical environment is. So long as that remains true, then there will be places for these violent non-state groups to exist and operate. Terror, Online and Off: Recent Trends in Islamic State Propaganda OperationsCharlie Winter
Haroro J. Ingram War on the Rocks 2 March 2018 Great hard data and quality analysis on the decline of ISIS online material. Islamic State’s English‐language magazines, 2014‐2017: Trends & implications for CT‐CVE strategic communicationsHaroro J. Ingram
The Hague: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism March 2018 Excellent review of the major ISIS produced English language written works. Narrative WarfareAjit Maan
Real Clear Defense 27 February 2018 This is a great summary of the importance of narrative in shaping what war really is: influence. In this article, Dr. Maan places narrative at the center of the strategic debate – precisely where it should be. Virtual Caliphate Rebooted: The Islamic State's Revolving Online StrategyCharlie Winter
Jade Parker Lawfare 7 January 2018 The article explains how the online presence of the Islamic State has changed and is changing to accommodate an adjusted emphasis on attacks abroad. Inside the Collapse of Islamic State's Propaganda MachineCharlie Winter
Wired 20 December 2017 The article includes excellent supporting statistics and analysis of the decline in online material. How ISIS Survives the Fall of Mosul |
Links to My Lists of Must Read Articles:Narrative
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Charlie Winter
The Atlantic
3 July 2017
The author asserts that the loss of Mosul was part of the ISIS plan all along – to antagonize the world such that it could dominate the jihadist narrative.
The Atlantic
3 July 2017
The author asserts that the loss of Mosul was part of the ISIS plan all along – to antagonize the world such that it could dominate the jihadist narrative.
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